AZ Real Estate Partners
Inventory Is Up But Buyers‘Can’t Find a House’
GTA right now: active listings are up 30%+ year-over-year, but sales volume hasn’t kept pace. Buyers say there’s nothing to pick from, sellers say nobody’s showing up. The inflection is telling you something specific.
It’s not simply ‘more inventory = lower prices’
I get asked every week: ‘I heard listings are way up — buyer’s market, right? Can I lowball 10%?’ Same week, sellers ask: ‘My listing’s been on for 45 days, no offers — is the buyer pool gone?’ Both reads are wrong. The market sits at a specific inflection: lots of listings on paper, but very few that actually match buyer demand; buyers are present but refuse to compromise. Here’s what each side should do.
5 specific scenarios
Phenomenon 1: listing count is up, but ‘good homes’ aren’t
TRREB data: inventory is climbing, but condo apartments are doing the heavy lifting. Detached and townhomes haven’t expanded much. Buyers want ‘good school + detached + three-car garage’; what’s flooding the market is ‘downtown 1-bedroom condo’. For sellers: if you’re a detached, your competition is actually thinner than the headline suggests. If you’re a condo, reprice now.
Phenomenon 2: too many options = slower decisions
Paradox of choice. When inventory grows from 30 to 100 units, buyers don’t decide faster — they decide slower, always thinking ‘maybe next week brings something better’. That’s why average days-on-market went from 18 to 32, but prices haven’t crashed — everyone’s waiting, nobody’s panic-selling.
Phenomenon 3: ‘good homes’ still attract multiple offers
Even in an oversupplied overall market, well-renovated, properly priced, well-marketed homes still pull multiple offers within 7-14 days. The gap isn’t a market problem — it’s a property-specific problem. Bad listings sit 80 days, good ones sell in 7, the average reads ’45 days’ — and the average hides the truth.
Seller playbook: price + marketing precision
(1) Price 2-3% below comp but market it as a deal — search engines surface it, buyers feel value. (2) Real video walkthrough — TikTok / Reels / RED actually generate showings now. (3) Convert open houses to by-appointment private showings — fewer feet, higher intent. Don’t blindly cut 5-10%; you’ll just attract lowballs.
Buyer playbook: more inventory ≠ free lowballs
Most common buyer mistake — anchor on one outlier sold-low and try to repeat it on a different home. It won’t work. Real strategy: (1) Pick 2-3 homes you actually want; (2) Get pre-approval ready; (3) On well-priced renovated homes, don’t go more than 3% under list — you’re not the only one watching, and the seller can wait. End of seller’s market ≠ open season for lowballs.
⚠ The actual inflection signal
Watch sales-to-new-listings ratio. Under 40% = buyer’s market. 40-60% = balanced. Above 60% = seller’s market. GTA right now is hovering around 40% — neither a buyer’s nor a seller’s market. It’s the ‘careful side wins’ market. Whether buying or selling, one wrong move costs more than usual.
FAQ · Common Questions
How much can I lowball today?
Strong listings (under 30 days, renovated, priced fair): 0-3%. Mid-tier (45-60 days, needs work): 3-7%. Weak listings (80+ days, issues, overpriced): 8-12%. A blanket ‘10% off list’ rule is wrong.
When is the best month to sell?
GTA historical: March-May and September-October peak. January and December bottom. But in this 2026 cycle property-specific factors (your home vs. comparable competition) outweigh seasonality.
Can I delist and relist?
You can, but MLS tracks relists and ranking drops. If you just want fresh time-on-market, a 3-5% price change is better — same outcome, less penalty.
How many days on market = warning?
GTA average for comparable: ~30 days. Past 45 = pricing or condition is wrong. Past 60 = price drop or delist required.
Buyers keep saying ‘we’ll wait’ — what now?
Sellers can’t out-wait buyers. Your competition is the next listing in your area. Each month adds new inventory; your home only gets staler. No offer at day 14 = repricing. No offer at day 28 = act.
Not sure which tier your listing is in?
Send the address and current listing details — I’ll tell you whether it’s a strong, mid, or weak listing and what to fix.
Arthur Zhao · Broker · 📞 416-888-6161 · arthurzhao.realtor
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VP & Branch Manager, Bay Street Group Inc.
为大多伦多地区客户服务的双语经纪。专注于为首购、投资者和跨境家庭提供有结构的策略。先看透,再落笔。Bilingual broker serving the Greater Toronto Area. Specialty: structured strategy for first-time buyers, investors, and cross-border families. Knowledge before commitment.
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