This Week in Toronto Real Estate

CREA: September sales down 7.7% from a year ago; 2026 forecast cut for a third time

The Canadian Real Estate Association said national sales fell 7.7% from a year earlier in September and 2.3% from August; the national average price, $666,538, was down 1.6% year over year, and the MLS® Home Price Index slipped 0.4% on the month and was down 3.4% on the year. CREA cut its 2026 forecast for a third time and now expects 444,530 sales this year, 5.2% fewer than in 2025 (its July forecast was a 1.4% decline), with sales recovering 4.4% in 2027. Senior economist Shaun Cathcart said many markets took "a step back" in September, which was "hardly surprising" given the jump in fixed mortgage rates and a widely expected Bank of Canada hike before year-end; he said Toronto and Vancouver were particularly weak. CBC separately reported that Royal LePage and CREA data show Toronto prices down 3.7% from a year earlier.

On this site: GTA home price dashboard →

Sources: Canadian Mortgage Trends (The Canadian Press) · Sammy Hudes · Oct 16 · CREA downgrades home sales forecast for the third time this year ↗
CBC News · Abby Hughes · Oct 16 · CREA revises down 2026 home sales forecast again as September transactions fall 7.7% over same month last year ↗
CBC News · Oct 18 · Toronto home prices drop nearly 4% compared to 2025 ↗

Ahead of the Oct. 28 decision, more forecasters expect a Bank of Canada hike

The Bank of Canada announces its next rate decision on Oct. 28; the policy rate has been 2.25% since October 2025. Bloomberg reported that on Oct. 19 Statistics Canada put September inflation at 3.1%, below expectations, while the Bank's own surveys released the same day showed consumers' longer-term inflation expectations rising; Bank of Montreal, RBC Dominion Securities and Desjardins then switched to calling a hike to 2.50%, and overnight swaps put the odds of a hike at 87% that day. The consensus in a Bloomberg survey still pointed to a hold. Writing in the Financial Post on Oct. 23, Robert McLister put market-implied odds of a hike at 78%. Mortgage and debt experts quoted by CBC said a hike would raise variable-rate mortgage payments immediately.

On this site: Ontario mortgage guide: approval to closing →

Sources: Canadian Mortgage Trends (Bloomberg) · Oct 19 · Bank of Canada hike bets grow among economists, traders ↗
CBC News · Jeff Lagerquist · Oct 21 · Bank of Canada increasingly expected to raise interest rates this month ↗
Financial Post · Robert McLister · Oct 23 (subscription may be required) · The inflationary vibe affecting bond yields — and odds of a rate hike ↗

Three outlooks for 2027: Desjardins sees a modest rebound, National Bank sees prices stabilizing, Oxford sees more declines first

A Desjardins report by senior economist Kari Norman expects Ontario resale activity to rise nearly 5% in 2027 and average prices 2.4%, with sales still well below long-term norms; she expects two near-term Bank of Canada hikes. National Bank chief economist Stéfane Marion said mortgage rates seem "top-ish," expects prices to stabilize in 2027 after a roughly 4% decline in the national composite index this year, and said the Bank should not hike on Oct. 28. Oxford Economics' Tony Stillo expects sales and prices to slide this fall and into early next year as mortgage rates rise, with a recovery starting in the second half of 2027 through 2028.

On this site: GTA home price dashboard →

Sources: Canadian Mortgage Trends (The Canadian Press) · Sammy Hudes · Oct 21 · Ontario housing market set for modest rebound in 2027: Desjardins report ↗
Canadian Mortgage Trends · Oct 20 · Home prices could stabilize in 2027 as mortgage rates near peak: National Bank ↗
Better Dwelling · Daniel Wong · Oct 23 · Canadian Real Estate Prices To Fall Even Further: Oxford Economics ↗

GTA new homes in September: low-rise beats the 10-year average again, high-rise hits a September low

New-home sales in the Greater Toronto Area totalled 949 in September, well up from a year earlier but 52% below the 10-year September average of 1,978, according to BILD and Altus Group. Low-rise sales of 820 were 17% above the 10-year average, the sixth month in a row above it since the HST rebate program began, and BILD said more than half were semis and townhouses; high-rise (which includes all condo apartment buildings and stacked townhouses) sold just 129 units, down 40% from a year earlier and the lowest September on record. The low-rise benchmark price was $1,246,764, down 13.3% over 12 months; the high-rise benchmark was $1,031,574, unchanged from a year earlier; both are gross prices that do not reflect the HST rebate. BILD and Altus point to the program's construction-start and completion rules as the main reason high-rise projects are not benefiting.

On this site: Ontario HST rebate guide →

Sources: STOREYS · Oct 22 · GTA High-Rise Sales Sink To A September Record Low ↗
Better Dwelling · Daniel Wong · Oct 22 · Toronto New Home Sales Rise, But Remain Weak As Price Declines Accelerate ↗

Urbanation: bulk buyers took 45% of new condo sales in the third quarter

Urbanation counted 760 new condo sales in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area in the third quarter, double a year earlier but 78% below the 10-year third-quarter average, the Financial Post reported. Investment groups bought 339 units in bulk, 45% of sales, paying an average of $763 per square foot, about 12% below the $866 averaged by resale units in recently registered buildings. Urbanation president Shaun Hildebrand said the buyers are private real estate investment firms and funds buying completed units to run as long-term rentals. Completed, unsold inventory fell 7% to 5,127 units, the first quarterly decline in four years but still 40% higher than a year ago; pre-construction sales fell 61% to 60 units.

On this site: Buying a condo in Toronto: 6 things to check →

Source: Financial Post · Shantaé Campbell · Oct 20 (subscription may be required) · Bulk buyers accounted for 45% of new Toronto condo sales during third quarter, report says ↗

CMHC: approved-but-unstarted homes rise to 143,929 as actual September starts fall 11% year over year

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation counted 143,929 homes in September with approved building permits but no construction started (reported with its figures for centres of 50,000 or more), up 1.1% from August. Actual starts in centres of 10,000 or more fell 11% year over year to 19,984 in September, and January-to-September starts of 170,964 were 4% behind 2025. The seasonally adjusted annual rate rose 3% to 248,896 units; Toronto's six-month trend was flat. CMHC deputy chief economist Aled ab Iorwerth said a key risk for Canada now is not building enough while housing markets soften.

Source: STOREYS · Oct 20 · Canada’s Approved-But-Unstarted Homes Climb As Starts Slide ↗

Column: Toronto's municipal land transfer tax "makes less sense than ever"

In a Financial Post column, Garry Marr argues that the municipal land transfer tax Toronto has levied on top of the provincial one since 2008 discourages buying and selling and makes less sense than ever in today's slow market. He quotes TRREB CEO John DiMichele calling for cuts to the tax; mayoral candidate Brad Bradford's pledge to eliminate the city tax on the value of a principal residence below $1.1 million (Toronto's 2025 average price), which Bradford estimates would cost the city $300 million; and Mayor Olivia Chow, running for re-election, whose council raised the rate for homes above $3 million (homes below were unaffected), saying "if you have enough money to buy luxury properties, then you pay a bit more." Marr argues the tax keeps owners renovating rather than moving, and TRREB's Jason Mercer said "you don't see as much cycling in the market"; a C.D. Howe Institute paper found land transfer taxes tend to reduce residential sales.

On this site: Ontario land transfer tax calculator →

Source: Financial Post · Garry Marr · Oct 14 (subscription may be required) · Garry Marr: Why Toronto's land transfer tax makes less sense than ever ↗

The foreign buyer ban expires Jan. 1, 2027; Ottawa says it is weighing its options

The federal ban on foreign home buyers took effect on Jan. 1, 2023, was extended by two years and is set to expire on Jan. 1, 2027. Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne said the government is looking at "all the options," Global News reported. RBC assistant chief economist Robert Hogue said his team's preliminary read of the ban's impact was "minuscule," noting that the steep rate hikes of the same period deep-froze the market and make the factors hard to disentangle. Statistics Canada data show non-residents owned roughly 2.75% of Ontario properties in 2021 to 2023 and 2.62% in 2024.

On this site: Canada's foreign buyer ban: who's banned and the key exceptions →

Source: Global News · Ariel Rabinovitch · Oct 13 · What could happen to home prices if the foreign buyers ban expires? ↗

RBC poll: non-owners expect to buy at 41; 53% of would-be buyers would consider multigenerational living

Leger surveyed 1,810 Canadians aged 18 to 64 online for RBC between Aug. 5 and 24. Owners said they bought their first home at 29 on average, while non-owners expect to buy at 41, and half of non-owners did not know when they would buy; Canadian Mortgage Trends noted these are respondents' experiences and expectations, not a measured change in first-time buyer age. Among first-time buyers planning to buy within two years, 74% would rather buy a home they can stay in longer; 53% of those planning to buy a first or next home within two years would consider multigenerational living, as would 57% of prospective first-time buyers; 35% of owners would sell and buy a multigenerational home with their child. Among current owners, 52% said moving up from their first home is harder than expected.

On this site: First-time home buyer guide for the GTA →

Sources: Canadian Mortgage Trends · Oct 14 · Housing costs push more buyers to consider multigenerational homes: RBC ↗
Better Dwelling · Daniel Wong · Oct 14 · Canadians Plan To Buy First Home At 41, Property Ladder Breaks: RBC ↗