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GTA Realtor · Weekly news · Sep 23–29, 2026

This Week in Toronto Real Estate

What happened in GTA real estate this week? This issue covers 8 stories from Sep 23–29, 2026, drawn from public sources including CBC News, TRREB, Canadian Mortgage Trends, Financial Post, each linked to the original.

Eight stories this week, led by a Toronto mayoral candidate's land transfer tax pledge, plus rate forecasts, Ontario's August sales, rental development and rents, small-scale infill in Toronto, and the outcome of an above-guideline rent increase bid in Parkdale.

8 STORIES

In this issue

  1. Toronto mayoral race: Bradford pledges to scrap the city land transfer tax on principal homes up to $1.1M
  2. Manulife now sees likely Bank of Canada hikes at the next two meetings
  3. TD cuts its 2026 housing call: national sales now seen down 5%
  4. Ontario's August sales were the lowest for the month in 25 years
  5. CMHC survey: 72% of rental housing respondents have paused or cancelled projects over rising costs
  6. Population revisions point to new supply as the bigger reason rents fell, say Rentals.ca and Urbanation
  7. CMHC: small-scale infill reached 6.45% of Toronto housing starts in 2025
  8. Landlord withdraws above-guideline rent increase bid at a Parkdale building, tenant organizers say
THIS WEEK

The news

01
Policy & Taxes

Toronto mayoral race: Bradford pledges to scrap the city land transfer tax on principal homes up to $1.1M

Mayoral candidate Brad Bradford said on Sept. 29 that, if elected in October, he would eliminate Toronto's municipal land transfer tax on principal residences selling for $1.1 million or less, with buyers above that price paying only on the portion over $1.1 million. Per CBC, only first-time buyers or people selling their current home would qualify; investment properties would not. His campaign puts the cost at about $300 million a year and the maximum saving at $18,000, says it would be funded by stretching the city's infrastructure repayment timeline and by dividends from a proposed public water company, and says that, if he wins, it would apply retroactively to purchases made between the announcement and election day. Incumbent Olivia Chow's campaign said the plan has no way to pay for it and called the dividend imaginary. TRREB, which has been urging candidates to cut the MLTT, said in a same-day statement that the municipal and provincial land transfer taxes on an average-priced Toronto home total roughly $36,000.

Sources: CBC News · Isaac Callan · Sep 29 · Mayoral candidate Brad Bradford promises to scrap land transfer tax on some Toronto homes ↗
TRREB · Daniel Steinfeld · Sep 29 · MLTT Relief is a Significant Step Forward for Homebuyers in Toronto ↗

02
Rates & Mortgages

Manulife now sees likely Bank of Canada hikes at the next two meetings

A senior macro strategist at Manulife, Dominique Lapointe, told investors the Bank of Canada is likely to raise rates at each of its next two meetings, citing the risk that the Middle East conflict spreads into broader price pressures — a change from the firm's earlier view of no move this year and hikes starting in mid-2027, Bloomberg reported. Economists in a new Bloomberg survey now see CPI inflation averaging 3% over the next six months (median forecast), and the two-year Canada yield climbed more than 30 basis points in September, closing at 3.426% on Sept. 24, its highest since July 2024. The overnight rate has been 2.25% since October 2025.

Source: Canadian Mortgage Trends (Bloomberg) · Erik Hertzberg · Sep 25 · Manulife sees Bank of Canada rate hike next month as inflation pressures build ↗

03
Market Data

TD cuts its 2026 housing call: national sales now seen down 5%

TD Bank now expects Canadian home sales to fall 5% in 2026, a deeper drop than the 3% decline it forecast at mid-year, while still calling for flat prices over the year, the Financial Post reported. TD economist Rishi Sondhi said higher bond yields, and the borrowing costs that follow them, are the main reason for the downgrade; the forecast assumes the Bank of Canada holds its rate at 2.25% through next year. CREA figures showed national sales down 0.7% in August from July, with the national benchmark price unchanged. For Ontario and Quebec, TD sees sales and prices stabilizing, with any gains below 1% because of weak population growth.

Source: Financial Post · Gigi Suhanic · Sep 29 (subscription may be required) · Canadian housing sales to fall 5% this year, TD says ↗

04
Market Data

Ontario's August sales were the lowest for the month in 25 years

Ontario recorded 13,620 home sales in August, down 6% from a year earlier and the weakest August in 25 years, YorkRegion.com reported, citing the Ontario Real Estate Association; the province's average resale price was $788,835, down 1.7% year over year. Licensed mortgage broker Leah Zlatkin said the average home now sits on the market for more than five months and that sellers who need to move are accepting less than they hoped, while broker Peggy Hill described it as a buyer's market.

Source: YorkRegion.com · Janis Ramsay · Sep 27 · Ontario homes are taking more than 5 months to sell as the market shifts in buyers’ favour — Experts explain what it means for sellers ↗

05
Rentals

CMHC survey: 72% of rental housing respondents have paused or cancelled projects over rising costs

In a survey commissioned by CMHC and conducted by EY, 72% of respondents — rental housing developers, owners, investors and housing providers — said rising costs over the past two to three years had led them to pause or cancel projects; 54% said they had raised rents, 44% had stretched timelines and 44% had shrunk unit sizes. Respondents operating in the Greater Toronto Area ranked lower or deferred development charges as the single most helpful policy change. The 110 responses were collected between May 28 and July 13, 2026, and the report cautions that they indicate industry sentiment rather than a statistically representative sample.

Source: Canadian Mortgage Trends · CMT Team · Sep 29 · Rental developers put projects on hold as costs rise, CMHC survey finds ↗

06
Rentals

Population revisions point to new supply as the bigger reason rents fell, say Rentals.ca and Urbanation

Statistics Canada has raised its population estimate by 301,008 people as of the second quarter of 2026, turning the first-quarter 2025-to-2026 change from a 0.5% decline into a 0.5% gain, according to an analysis by Rentals.ca and Urbanation reported by Canadian Mortgage Trends; more than 90% of the revision came from non-permanent resident estimates. With most of the reported population drop gone, the two firms now see new supply as the more significant factor behind falling rents — average asking rents are 7.6% below their May 2024 peak — and note that developers are already pulling back on starts, especially condominiums. City-level population estimates have not been revised yet.

Source: Canadian Mortgage Trends · CMT Team · Sep 29 · Population revisions point to new supply as bigger driver of falling rents ↗

07
Supply & Planning

CMHC: small-scale infill reached 6.45% of Toronto housing starts in 2025

Accessory dwelling units and buildings of two to eight units made up 6.45% of Toronto's housing starts in 2025, up from 0.62% in 2023, according to new CMHC analysis reported by STOREYS. City council allowed multiplexes of up to four units as of right in May 2023, and five- and six-unit buildings are now as-of-right in nine of the city's 25 wards. Nationally, CMHC estimates small-scale infill was about 10% of all housing starts last year.

Source: STOREYS · Zakiya Kassam · Sep 24 · Small-Scale Infill Is (Finally) Showing Up In Toronto’s Housing Data ↗

08
Rentals

Landlord withdraws above-guideline rent increase bid at a Parkdale building, tenant organizers say

Tenants at 75 Spencer Avenue in Toronto's Parkdale neighbourhood began withholding rent in March after the property manager applied for an above-guideline increase that tenants said would raise their housing costs 5.4%; after six months, tenant organizers say Metcap Living has withdrawn the application, The Canadian Press reported. The building was sold to a new owner in May. Ontario's cap for rent-controlled units was 2.5% in 2025, but landlords may apply to the Landlord and Tenant Board for increases above it to fund renovations and building improvements.

Source: Global News · The Canadian Press · Sep 25 · Landlord withdraws rent increase after tenant strike at Toronto apartment: organizers ↗

Following AI too? AZ Agents News ↗ is Arthur’s AI news brief, updated twice a day (in Chinese).

Summaries on this page are drafted with AI assistance and checked against each original; they restate the reporting only, are not the views of Arthur Zhao or Bay Street Group, and are not investment, legal or tax advice. Where a summary and its source differ, the source governs. News content remains the copyright of its authors and publishers.

All issues

FAQ

How are the stories in this brief chosen?

Every week we collect from 20 public sources — including the Bank of Canada, Statistics Canada, the Department of Finance, the Ontario and Toronto governments, TRREB, CREA and major business and local newsrooms — rank them by how much they matter to people buying, selling or renting in the GTA, and Arthur Zhao makes the final selection.

Who writes the summaries, and are they advice?

Summaries are drafted with AI assistance, state only what the original reporting says, and are checked line by line against the source before publishing, with the outlet, author and a link to the original. They are not investment, legal or tax advice; read the original and talk to the right professional before acting on anything.

How often is it updated, and where are past issues?

One issue a week, usually on Monday, covering the news since the previous issue. Every past issue stays on the Toronto Real Estate News archive page.

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