Reading TRREB/CREA Data Yourself: 4 Metrics That Tell You If It's a Buyer's or Seller's Market

Step 1: Decide whether you're judging direction or temperature — don't mix the two

Many clients open Market Watch and lock onto “the average price is up X% year-over-year.” But price is a result, not a signal. To judge whether the market leans buyer or seller, first sort the metrics into two groups:

• Supply-and-demand metrics — months of inventory (MOI) and the sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR). These tell you directly whether there are more buyers or more sellers, and they’re your primary tools for reading direction.
• Price-and-speed metrics — average price, median price, and days on market (DOM). These tell you how hot the market is and where prices are heading, and you use them to cross-check the first two.

Order matters: read supply and demand first, then price. Supply and demand is the cause; price is the effect. If inventory is rising and SNLR is falling, the direction is already turning even if average price hasn’t dropped yet — and that’s exactly where the data leads the headlines.

Step 2: Months of inventory (MOI) — the first metric for buyer vs. seller

Months of inventory answers an intuitive question: at the current pace of sales, how many months would it take to sell every home currently listed? It’s calculated by dividing active listings at month-end by that month’s sales.

• How to read it. According to CREA (2026), the long-term national average for months of inventory is about 5 months. Measured against that benchmark, below roughly 3.6 months leans toward a seller’s market (homes get snapped up, little room to negotiate) and above roughly 6.4 months leans toward a buyer’s market (oversupply, buyers have choice); in between is roughly balanced.
• The common industry shorthand. Buyer’s market > 6 months, balanced about 4–6 months, seller’s market < 4 months. It’s close to CREA’s standard-deviation bands and easier to remember.
• A real example. According to TRREB (2026), the Greater Toronto Area sat at about 4.1 months of inventory at the end of May 2026 — inside the balanced range, but already tilted toward the seller’s side.

My advice: don’t fixate on a single month’s number — watch the trend. Several months of decline is the earliest sign the market is tightening.

Step 3: Sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) — CREA's go-to direction metric

The sales-to-new-listings ratio measures sales in a month against new listings added that month — divide sales by new listings and multiply by 100 to get a percentage. It’s the metric CREA and local boards most often cite when describing market direction.

• Three bands. According to CREA (2026), SNLR above 60% leans seller’s market, 40%–60% is roughly balanced, and below 40% leans buyer’s market.
• Why it leads price. New listings are supply, sales are demand, and their ratio reflects directly which side has the upper hand — usually moving before average price does.
• A real example. According to TRREB (2026), the GTA’s SNLR in May 2026 was about 37.2% (about 34.8% in April, about 28.6% in May 2025) — technically still in buyer’s territory, but climbing month over month, meaning supply and demand are drifting back toward balance.

Read SNLR alongside months of inventory: the last step put May inventory at 4.1 months (leaning balanced), while SNLR here is 37.2% (leaning buyer). A small disagreement is normal — and it’s exactly why you cross-check several metrics instead of trusting a single number.

Step 4: Average vs. median price — don't get fooled by one figure

The report usually gives both prices, and they’re not measuring the same thing:

• Average price. Add up every sale price and divide by the number of sales. It’s pulled by extremes — a handful of luxury sales in a month lifts the average, and the reverse drags it down.
• Median price. Line up every sale price from low to high and take the one in the middle. Half of sales are above it, half below, and it’s insensitive to extremes, so it better represents the “typical” home.

How to use the gap. When the average sits well above the median, high-end sales made up a larger share that month (lifting the average); when the two are close, the mix of sales was more even. To gauge what a typical buyer actually faces, lean on the median; to gauge whether the high end is active, watch the spread between the two. Don’t draw conclusions from a swing in the average alone — it may just mean a few more luxury homes traded this month.

Days on market (DOM) is the average number of days a home takes to go from listing to sale (or removal). It’s the speedometer for supply and demand:

• Short DOM. Homes sell quickly, usually signaling strong demand and on-point pricing — a seller’s-market trait.
• Long DOM. Homes linger, which can mean oversupply or overpricing — a buyer’s-market trait.
• The trend is what matters. DOM shrinking over several months alongside falling inventory often foreshadows a turn toward sellers; the reverse points toward buyers.

A single month’s DOM is noisy (season and home type swing it), so treat it as a confirmation metric: when inventory is falling, SNLR is rising, and DOM is shortening too, three signals pointing the same way make the call far more reliable.

Next time Market Watch drops, read it in this order and you can reach your own conclusion in five minutes:

• ① Start with months of inventory to set the broad direction: < 4 leans seller, 4–6 balanced, > 6 leans buyer (CREA’s standard-deviation bands are < 3.6 / > 6.4).
• ② Check SNLR to confirm the direction: > 60% seller, 40–60% balanced, < 40% buyer. Set it against months of inventory — when both point the same way, you can trust the read.
• ③ Read the DOM trend for temperature: shortening over several months = tightening, lengthening = loosening.
• ④ Look at price last — use the median for the typical home and the average-vs-median gap for the high end. Price is a result, so it goes at the end.

One practical reminder: always watch the trend and the segment. The GTA-wide figure averages across very different cities and home types; the specific area and property type you care about may be moving against the broader market. When it’s time to buy or sell, have your agent pull the same metrics for your target neighbourhood and home type — that’s what actually reflects your situation.

Months of inventory or the sales-to-new-listings ratio — which should I trust?

Use both and let them cross-check. Months of inventory (MOI) answers "how many months to clear current listings at today's pace," while SNLR answers "what share of newly listed homes are being bought." According to CREA (2026), MOI averages about 5 months long-term (below roughly 3.6 leans seller, above roughly 6.4 leans buyer), and SNLR above 60% leans seller while below 40% leans buyer. The call is most reliable when both point the same way; a small disagreement is normal, which is exactly why you cross-check.

Why can't I just judge the market by whether average price is up or down?

Because the average is pulled by extreme sales. A few luxury closings in a month lift the average, but that doesn't mean ordinary home prices are rising. Use the median (insensitive to extremes) to judge the typical home, and use supply-and-demand metrics (months of inventory, SNLR) to judge direction. Price is the result of supply and demand and usually lags; to read direction early, watch supply and demand, not price.

Is the GTA a buyer's or a seller's market right now?

Using May 2026 as the example: according to TRREB (2026), inventory was about 4.1 months (balanced, leaning toward the seller's side) and SNLR was about 37.2% (technically still in buyer's territory but climbing month over month). Both metrics point to a transition from buyer's toward balanced. But note this is the GTA-wide average — your specific neighbourhood and home type may differ, and the numbers update monthly, so go by the latest TRREB/CREA release.

Does a short days-on-market (DOM) always mean a seller's market?

Not necessarily — read the trend, not a single month. Short DOM usually signals strong demand and on-point pricing, a seller's-market trait, but a single month's DOM swings with season and home type. The more reliable approach is to use it as a confirmation metric: only when inventory is falling, SNLR is rising, and DOM is shortening together — three signals aligned — can you be fairly confident the market is turning toward sellers.

Can I read Market Watch myself, or do I need an agent?

You can absolutely make the basic call yourself: read it in the order months of inventory → SNLR → DOM trend → price, and you can reach a broad conclusion in five minutes. But Market Watch is a GTA-wide average; when you're actually deciding to buy or sell, you need the same metrics broken down to your target neighbourhood and home type — and that part usually requires an agent to pull from the board system. Read the big picture yourself, then have your agent fill in your area's detail. That's the most efficient combination.