GTA Condo Market 2026: Has Spring Arrived? Let the Latest TRREB Data Speak
Best buyer leverage in years for end-users; investors still under pressure — and the price bottom isn’t confirmed
Is the GTA condo market recovering and has it bottomed in 2026?
For affordability and overall sales there are green shoots, but for condo prices specifically, not yet — the latest data is still falling.According to TRREB (Q1 2026), the GTA average condo apartment price was $618,484, down 9.1% year-over-year, with sales down 11.3% and active listings still elevated. A 2.25% policy rate (Bank of Canada, June 2026) has improved affordability but had not yet turned into a price recovery as of Q1. For end-users it’s the best buyer window in years; for investors it remains a hard market.
Sources: TRREB (Q1 2026 Condo and Rental reports; May 2026 Market Watch); CMHC (2025 condo market risk report); Bank of Canada (June 2026 policy rate).
‘Is spring here for condos?’ is the question I get most right now. I don’t read markets on sentiment — only on TRREB’s actual data. The verdict: there are real green shoots in affordability and overall sales, but the condo price bottom isn’t confirmed. Here are the latest numbers, and what they mean for end-users versus investors.
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Latest condo data: prices are still falling
Oversupply: the root cause of this decline
Rents are falling too: renters gain, landlords squeezed
Rate backdrop: 2.25%, but not yet a price spark
⚠️The honest takeaway: ‘spring is here for condos’ is only half-true right now. Affordability and overall sales show green shoots, but the condo price bottom isn’t confirmed. A genuine price recovery needs active listings to fall meaningfully — which hadn’t happened as of Q1.
The split: end-users vs investors
Frequently Asked Questions
Is now a good time to buy a GTA condo?
For end-users, it’s the best buyer window in years — prices about 9% lower YoY, lots of choice, and a 2.25% rate. But the price bottom isn’t confirmed, so timing the exact low is unrealistic. For long-term occupancy with stable cash flow, conditions are favourable; for short-term speculation, risk remains high.
Will condo prices keep falling?
It’s uncertain. According to CMHC, oversupply (record 2024 completions, high pre-construction unsold rates) is still being absorbed. A genuine floor usually requires active listings to fall meaningfully, and according to TRREB (Q1 2026) active listings were flat year-over-year. Pressure persists directionally, though lower rates are a support.
Should investors buy condos now?
Be very cautious. According to CMHC, carrying costs are up about 24% since 2022 while rents are up about 15%, leaving many units cash-flow negative, with up to ~6% capital losses on 2024 closings. Unless you have ample cash-flow cushion and a long horizon, current conditions are unfriendly for pure investment.
Are condo rents falling too?
Yes. According to TRREB (Q1 2026), the average one-bedroom condo rent was $2,246 (down 4.1% YoY) and two-bedroom $2,939 (down 3.2%). Added supply is tilting conditions toward renters — good news for tenants, pressure for landlords.
Arthur Zhao
Real Estate Broker · FRI · ABR · SRS · PSA · MCNE · E-PRO · GUILD Elite
VP & Branch Manager, Bay Street Group Inc.
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