1

What it is: average sale price ÷ original list price, expressed as %. >100% = bidding wars / above asking; <100% = price reductions / discounts. Where to find: TRREB Market Watch monthly report, your agent’s MLS dashboard, or HouseSigma/Zolo neighbourhood data.

How to read:
• LSR >102% for 4+ consecutive weeks in your area = bidding war territory. List now with offer date.
• LSR 98–102% = balanced. Pricing precision matters more than timing.
• LSR <97% = buyer market. Either price aggressively or wait.

GTA 2026 reality (April): overall LSR ~99% (just under list). Submarket variance is huge — Markham detached may be at 101%, downtown Toronto condos at 96%. The neighbourhood-specific number is what matters.

2

What it is: median days from listing to firm sale.

How to read:
• Your area’s median DOM 20%+ below the 12-month median = market accelerating. Strong sell signal.
• Median DOM holding flat = neutral.
• Median DOM rising 30%+ = market cooling. Either price ahead or wait.

GTA April 2026: Average days on market: 29 days, up 16.0% YoY. Property days on market: 43 days, up 16.2%. DOM is rising overall — neighbourhood-specific check is critical. Some pockets remain fast; many are slower than 2024.

Watch for: the inflection moment when DOM in your area is still flat while broader GTA is rising — that’s a narrow window where your local supply tightness creates pricing power.

1

What it is: active listings ÷ monthly sales rate. <6 months = seller market; 6–9 = balanced; >9 = buyer market.

How to use:
• <4 months of inventory in your micro-market = strong sell signal. Bidding wars likely.
• 4–7 months = balanced. Sell at fair value with good marketing.
• >7 months = buyer market. Sellers often need 5–10% price cuts to move.

GTA 2026 reality: overall ~5–7 months across the region, but condos in some downtown submarkets are >10 months (buyer market), while certain detached suburbs are still at 3–4 months (seller market).

Why this matters more than headline GTA numbers: condos and detached homes can be at opposite ends of the cycle simultaneously. Look at YOUR property type in YOUR neighbourhood.

2

Why rates matter: mortgage qualifying rate moves shift buyer purchasing power. A 50bp cut typically expands buyer qualification by 4–6% — that goes into price.

How to use:
• Within 60 days after a BoC cut = strong sell signal. Buyer demand surges, qualification expands.
• Inside a rate-hike cycle = soft signal to sell early (each hike compresses buyer pool).
• Holding pattern = neutral.

2026 macro (May): Bank of Canada policy rate has been in a gradual easing cycle from 2024 peaks. Watch the next 4 announcement dates (BoC publishes calendar yearly). A confirmed rate cut typically generates 60–90 days of elevated buyer demand — list before that window closes.

Watch BoC and CMHC commentary closely for forward guidance — the announcement matters less than the language.

3

Why this is the most actionable signal: it’s specific to your property type, square footage, and neighbourhood.

How to read:
• 3+ comparable sales in last 8 weeks at or above your target list price = strong signal. Sufficient evidence to list at top of range.
• Sparse comparables (<3 recent) = pricing is harder. Either wait for more data or list at conservative price.
• Comparables falling 4%+ vs 6 months ago = market trending down. Sell sooner or expect lower price in 3 months.

Methodology: ask your agent for active + sold + expired comparables. Expired listings tell you what didn’t work — usually overpriced. Sold tell you what the market actually paid.

Avoid: relying on Zolo / HouseSigma estimates only. They’re directional but not precise — manual MLS analysis by an experienced local agent is worth 1–2% on price.

1

Historical TRREB data shows:
• March–May: highest sale volume, often peak prices, most buyer competition. Spring market is real.
• June: still strong but starts thinning. Last solid month before summer.
• July–August: thinner buyer pool (vacations). Listings stall or see price drops.
• September–early October: second peak. Serious fall buyers, motivated to close before year-end.
• Late October–November: market slows fast. Decent for motivated buyers.
• December–January: lowest volume, but buyers in this window are highly serious (less competition, often above-ask if right product).

The trap: assuming “spring market” guarantees the best result. In 2026, with rising DOM and softer pricing in many submarkets, spring market discipline matters more than spring market timing.

2

List off-season when:

1) Inventory is exceptionally low in your area (e.g. December with 2 months of inventory) — your listing has outsized attention.
2) A neighbourhood comparable just sold at a record price — capitalize on the print before more listings hit.
3) Rate environment is shifting in your favour — list within 60 days of a cut.
4) Your property has unique seasonal appeal — waterfront sells better in summer; ski-area homes in winter.

Wait when:
• Your local LSR <97%, DOM rising 30%+, inventory >7 months — most of the year is unfavorable
• Major neighbourhood disruption (e.g. construction blocking street, school closure announcement)
• Personal situation lets you wait 60–120 days for one of the 5 signals to align