Most buyers ask the wrong question: “How much will the bank lend me?” The bank doesn’t care if you lose your job. The right question in 2026 is: “Can I hold this property for 18 months if my income stops?” That single shift in framing will lead you to a completely different — and much safer — decision.
Run an 18–24 month unemployment stress test: if one income earner in your household loses their job tomorrow, can you cover mortgage + property tax + condo fees + insurance + basic maintenance entirely from liquid savings for 18 months? If yes, buy. If no, downsize the purchase.
Example: $3,200 mortgage + $500 tax + $600 condo + $120 insurance + $400 maintenance = $4,820/month
Liquid assets = savings + TFSA + money you can access within days. Not home equity. Not RRSP (without early-withdrawal penalties).
Example: $120,000 liquid ÷ 18 = $6,667/month ceiling. If your carrying cost exceeds this, you run out of runway in under 18 months.
① Can this property be rented out if needed? What percentage of your carrying cost would rent cover?
② If prices drop 20%, would you regret the purchase? If yes, you’re speculating, not buying a home.
③ When your fixed rate renews at a higher rate, can you absorb the payment increase? Model a +1.5% scenario before you commit.
Strongest
Strong
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Rule 1 Buy what you can genuinely afford — not the maximum the bank will approve. Banks optimize for their return, not your stability.
Rule 2 Lock in a fixed rate. Variable rates look attractive in good times. You’re not in good times until you’re in good times. Buy certainty when you’re buying a home.
Rule 3 Don’t drain your savings for a larger down payment. Keep at least 6 months of carrying costs in liquid reserves post-closing. A bigger down payment is meaningless if you can’t weather a financial shock.
The smartest buyers I’ve worked with in 2026 aren’t buying the biggest home they can finance. They’re buying the home they can hold through a job loss, a rate hike, or a market correction — and sleeping soundly while doing it. Get stable first. Upgrade later.
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