Every move-up buyer faces the same question: buy first and risk carrying two mortgages, or sell first and risk missing the right home? According to CREA (2026), Canada is expected to see 494,512 transactions this year — a 5.1% increase. With Ontario’s inventory at decade highs, the market dynamics in 2026 strongly favour a particular answer. Here’s the full analysis.
Recommended for 2026
Disadvantage: May need to rent temporarily if you can’t time your next purchase well. Two moves instead of one.
Why it works in 2026: With 5.8 months of condo inventory and elevated supply in the detached market, good properties stay available for 3–4 weeks. You have time.
Only when conditions are right
Risk: Must qualify for both mortgages simultaneously (DTI including both payments). If your current home sells below expectation or doesn’t sell quickly, financial stress is severe.
Best for: Strong financial position, rare/specific property type you can’t afford to miss, or when your current home already has interested buyers.
For most clients in 2026, I recommend sell first, then buy. The market has more supply than it’s had in a decade — you won’t miss the right property. The financial risk of carrying two mortgages in a buyer’s market far outweighs the inconvenience of one temporary move.
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